Predictions have long been the standard for season previews. Who will make the playoffs? How about the MVP? The suspected championship team. Every media outlet ever has answered these questions before any season dating back decades. Well before television or podcasts became a thing.
In recent years gambling has dominated the conversation surrounding previews.
I won’t ever care about gambling, so this won’t be that kind of prediction post.
The focus of this exercise is to guess the pinnacle for each player on the Sixers. It might be reaching a specific statline in a game. It could be a season average. An accolade. A team record. An NBA one if I am feeling bolder than a Death Wish brew. One estimation for every one, including two-way players.
The loss of Ariel Hukporti cannot be overstated. It’s old news now, but how the team decides to replace him once the regular season begins is one of the biggest questions at the moment. Signing a big man to the final two-way spot seems obvious, but that player being a contributor will be easier said than done. There should be plenty of small-ball with Dominick Barlow and Jabari Walker playing center. Dean Wade, too. I hope Nick Nurse is careful about using LeBron James at the five.
Now, the crystal ball.
Dominick Barlow – Grab 10 offensive rebounds more than once
Barlow has yet to play this preseason with a back ailment, so that’s a bit worrisome, but he should log plenty of minutes as a 5 this year in addition to sharing the court with Joel Embiid. Barlow playing alongside Adem Bona isn’t likely. The spacing would be woeful. The Sixers, with LeBron James and Jaylen Brown in tow, are more equipped to play Barlow at the 5 this season compared to last. I wrote about Barlow’s epic game against the Clippers when I kicked-off this series in August, so naturally I predicted an offensive rebound accolade. Let’s say Barlow matches that career high he set last year in one more game. The last Sixer to surpass 10 offensive rebounds in a game was Lavoy Allen in 2013 when he finished with 11. Charles Barkley has the team-record 16, doing so twice over a 16-day span in 1987.
Anfernee Simons – 10 games making at least five threes as a reserve
No Sixer has had more than four games in a season (Kyle Korver, Isaiah Cannan, Furkan Korkmaz, Georges Niang, and Quentin Grimes) making at least five threes off the bench. Simons accomplished that feat seven times last year before Boston traded him to Chicago in February.
It has been a bit since the Sixers had a guy like Simons. He has defensive limitations, but he has averaged over 20 points in two seasons during his career. He’ll play plenty alongside VJ Edgecombe in the backcourt.
Jabari Walker – 37 percent from three
Walker will always bring effort. His release looks a bit faster, too. I mostly dismissed Walker over the summer as a deep bench player, and it could still be the case. But how he has played this preseason at least gives him an inside track to early season minutes. The top eight at full strength is clear. The strting five, Simons, Dean Wade, and KCP. Bona is the clear backup big; however, as pointed out earlier, Walker and Barlow will have opportunities. And with Bona and Barlow hurt, Walker will get an immediate opportunity.
Joel Embiid – Six assists per game
How Embiid approaches this stage of his career will be telling. He doesn’t need to be a 30-point scorer every night, but he needs to take advantage of mismatches. He needs to set solid screens, to defend, and to rebound. How his body responds will be everything. Since his MVP season, Embiid has played 39 percent of regular season games. Back-to-backs are history. It took a while for Embiid to find his footing last year, but this summer he didn’t have to worry about recovery, or the Olympics. He looks slim. Of course he struggled in the first preseason game because Embiid always struggles off the bat.
There is intrigue surrounding Embiid’s usage. How does it change with Jaylen Brown and LeBron James? Will he shoot more threes? Embiid’s two-man game with Maxey has been special. He’ll attempt to build a similar rapport with Anfernee Simons. Embiid has always excelled with shooters.
His passing, however, is where I decided to predict, mainly because I don’t want to predict how many games he plays. Embiid averaged 5.6 assists three years ago, albeit in 39 games. It is the lone time he has averaged more than 5 assists per game.
Justin Edwards – Averages 1.5 threes and one steal per game
This is a tough one. Edwards played a ton as a rookie because the Sixers had a dire situation. Last year his minutes were more inconsistent but he eventually carved a role, especially during Paul George’s suspension. He’ll be fighting for minutes, but maybe there will be a stretch where he’ll play consistently if an injury happens, or he earns Nick Nurse’s trust.
He is far from a flashy player. He is a capable outside shooter, and mostly knows where he needs to be on the defense. He registered a steal in more than half of the games he played last year, while making a three in a shade under half. Last season there were 27 players who totaled 900 minutes with a steal percentage 2.5% or greater. Let’s focus on per game numbers rather than totals since how many minutes he plays will be difficult to presume.
Rayan Rupert – Plays first half minutes before Thanksgiving
Somehow Rupert recorded the most recent triple double on this roster. He finished with 33 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in April. It probably says more about the state of the NBA, which led to new lottery rules with the hopes of cracking down on tanking. Rupert has some intrigue. He is only 22, so he is an ideal player to have on a two-way contract considering his experience. The Sixers have had recent success with two-way players, namely three players found on this list (Edwards, Barlow and Walker).
This one is nearly impossible because the opportunity won’t be there for Rupert compared to previous two-way players, but let’s say he’ll be needed early in the season.
LeBron James – Finish second all-time in assists
LeBron doesn’t need to score often this year. That’s the beauty of playing alongside Brown, Embiid, and Maxey. Edgecombe demonstrated quickly his innate cutting will work wonders. LeBron needs 76 assists to pass Jason Kidd for third all-time. He needs 537 for second place ahead of Chris Paul.
Last year he finished with 432 assists over 60 games, while two years ago he had 575 assists in 70 games. With his main focus as a distributor on offense, he doesn’t even need to play 70 games to accomplish this goal. James Harden, Ben Simmons, Jrue Holiday, Andre Miller, Allen Iverson, and Eric Snow are the Sixers to reach at least 537 assists this century.
Labaron Philon – Five steals in a game
Rumors have persisted about Philon’s defensive potential during training camp. It is hard to envision Philon having a consistent role given the guards rostered, but playing time could exist if his defense transfers to regular season competition. It would not be a surprise if Philon is traded this year with the question marks that surround the center spot, but let’s pretend he’ll be here all season.
Five steals in a game has happened many times for Sixer rookies this century. VJ Edgecombe accomplished it last year. Justin Edwards the year before. Essentially any Sixer rookie (besides Embiid) that flashed defensive potential: Matisse Thybulle, Ben Simmons, Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter-Williams, Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodala, and Speedy Claxton.
Adem Bona – New career high in block percentage
Bona’s rookie numbers were more impressive than last year. He still maintained an elite block rate, but not as efficient as his 7.5 block percentage as a rookie. Only eight players that played at least 65 games had a block percentage higher than six. He has struggled as an offensive player, specifically as a screener, and his rebounding has been an issue, too. He is such an important player in theory. But if he struggles, they will simply find someone else to do the dirty work. He is also not practicing at the moment.
VJ Edgecombe – Average 20 points, five rebounds, and two steals per game
Edgecombe has looked confident attacking the basket this preseason. With LeBron deferring and the many games Embiid should miss, there is opportunity for Edgecombe to make an impact that builds off of rookie season. This will be the boldest prediction, because what do I have to lose? LeBron James, Charles Barkley, Larry Bird, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Magic Johnson are second-year players to average 20 points, five rebounds, and two steals a game.
I initially downplayed how big of a role Edgecombe would have on this team based on raw point numbers. I thought maybe he’d be the one who had to sacrifice the most with regards to scoring. The steal portion, however, is loftier. Only two players who played more than half the season averaged two steals last season: Dyson Daniels and Ausar Thompson, two of the best perimeter defenders.
Dean Wade – Lowest usage rate of career (Under 9.9)
LeBron James said the other day, “he can play for any basketball team on the planet, and he’ll fit right in.” He’ll be immensely helpful. Compare Wade’s last year to recent Sixer seasons. He’ll have a similar impact. It might be more pronounced this year given how many dominant one-on-one players surround Wade. He’ll be asked to screen, to move the ball, to shoot open threes, and to defend multiple positions.
Tyrese Maxey – Most catch and shoot 3s in career
It is no secret that Maxey has been overtaxed since James Harden went to the Clippers. He has more than held his own as the team’s point guard, and he is better off for it to experience the number of double teams and traps he has seen, but it’s about time the Sixers give Maxey some help. Edgecombe helped some last year, to lighten the burden, which should continue. But it is LeBron James who will help the most.
Three of Maxey’s four three-point attempts against Brooklyn the other night were of the catch and shoot variety. He made two of them. He missed his only pull-up attempt.
Maxey has mostly been excellent as an off-the-catch shooter.
Since he became a starter in 2021, per NBA tracking data, Maxey has made 42.1 percent of his catch and shoot threes, but that number is bogged down by the dreadful 34.9 percent two seasons ago. When he has had competent playmakers alongside him for a bulk of the season, he has been sensational. The issue is attempts. Last year marked the first time he reached 100 catch and shoot makes during a season. Look for him to blow past that this year.
Caleb Love – Eight threes in a game
I looked for a two-way player data basis everywhere. I couldn’t find anything. There are, however, a maximum number of games (50) two-way players are eligible to play, so that helped with the search. Love is the only two-way player I found with 90+ threes as a two-way player. He hopefully won’t play enough games to reach that number again, but there will be a game where he makes eight of them.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – 40 percent from 3
It wasn’t that long ago that many Sixer fans considered the possibility of Caldwell-Pope joining the Sixers. He went to Orlando where he didn’t fully fit before being the salary match in the Desmond Bane swap. He struggled mightily in Memphis, which resulted in a season-ending wrist surgery. He’ll be a major contributor. Obviously he has familiarity with LeBron. It is why he’s here. But his ability to play alongside Maxey, VJ, or Simons will be vital. After back-to-back sub 40 percent seasons from three, he’ll regain his form. This isn’t going out on a limb or anything.
Jaylen Brown – Another All-NBA season
I couldn’t be more excited to see how Brown approaches this season. The Celtics stopped believing in him. Before he was traded, the NBA media contingent openly discussed his impact for Boston. A report that claimed he was the seventh best player for the Celtics based on advanced numbers. Still, nobody sided with Boston after the trade, but mostly because nobody thinks Paul George can stay healthy. What if he does? Boston will be a good to great regular season team regardless, but there is potential for the Celtics to be viewed as the clear winner of the trade.
Brown would change that conversation with another All-NBA campaign. If his off-ball defense isn’t a liability. If he’s a consistent playmaker.
The season is eight days away. Next week won’t be a traditional “That Stat.” Instead I will write my typical annual season preview of sorts.
Feel swell, friends!
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